Case file CF-19/26 · opened Nov 21, 2019 · current through Jul 24, 2026
Could the Cybertruck become one of history's great automotive flops?
A source-first postmortem-in-progress. Every claim on this site is receipted to NHTSA filings, SEC documents, Tesla statements, or industry data — and every verdict is labeled by what the evidence actually supports.
Key metrics
The promise gap
Full ledger →November 2019 reveal claims against production reality. Six of fifteen tracked claims, previewed:
- MissedSingle-motor RWD from $39,900 Never sold at that price. The cheapest trim ever delivered was the RWD at $69,990 (April–September 2025); a temporary promotional AWD reached $59,990 in February 2026, described by Musk as a short-term demand test.
- MissedDual-motor AWD from $49,900 AWD launched at $79,990 in November 2023 — 60% above the promise — and has ranged roughly $59,990–$82,235 across promotions since. It has never been offered near $49,900.
- MissedTri-motor from $69,900 The tri-motor Cyberbeast launched at $99,990, rose to roughly $114,990 in 2025, then was cut back to $99,990 in February 2026 — 43% above the promise at its cheapest.
- KeptSingle-motor range 250+ miles The RWD trim delivered an EPA-estimated 250 miles at its 2025 launch spec.
- KeptDual-motor range 300+ miles AWD delivered an EPA-estimated 340 miles at the November 2023 launch — above the promised floor.
- MissedTri-motor range 500+ miles The Cyberbeast delivered an EPA-estimated 320 miles standalone. The optional Range Extender pack needed to approach the promise was announced, then never sold; owner-community reporting indicates Tesla cancelled it in May 2025.
Sales trajectory vs the stated target
Market analysis →U.S. sales estimates (Cox Automotive / Kelley Blue Book — Tesla does not disclose model-level figures) against Musk's October 2023 benchmark of roughly 250,000 a year "sometime in 2025."
Q4 2024 comparison base: 12,991. Figures are estimates; see the methodology for why they are the best available and where they can be wrong.
Recall record
Full recall table →- 24V-051 Warning-light font too small (FMVSS 105/135)
- 24V-276 Accelerator pedal pad may dislodge and trap the pedal
- 24V-456 Front windshield wiper motor controller failure
- 24V-457 Sail applique trim may separate at speed
- 24V-718 Rearview camera image delayed after shifting to Reverse (FMVSS 111)
- 24V-832 Drive inverter MOSFET fault causing loss of propulsion
- 24V-935 TPMS malfunction telltale fails to persist (FMVSS 138)
- 25V-170 Cant rail stainless panel may delaminate and separate
- 25V-699 Front parking lamps exceed FMVSS 108 brightness limits
- 25V-735 Service-installed off-road light bar may detach from windshield
- 26V-255 Brake-rotor stud-hole cracking on 18-inch steel wheels
Populations overlap and cannot be summed into unique trucks — the recall page explains the denominator problem.